Your approach to beating the bookmaker?

[Journeyman]

I think many of us will readily admit we have tried just about every way possible to knock out the bookie...

Reading gambling forums I see these quotes every couple days it seems;

"And after trying every angle imaginable I am back to the drawing board, again!"

.............annonymous poster

"After about two years of reading sports gambling forums I am more confused than before "

.............annonymous poster
.......................................

So I ask the posting experts, what are your basic fundamentals to finding a game where you find "value"...

Are most players following line movement, have a set system in place, or just handicapping on 'feel'?

Many give out plays around here but most do not talk about what their formula is?

 

[MadCapper]

3 Step process to my success.

1. Handicap the game yourself. Feel it out. Predict the line. Know what you will be playing before checking out the Vig.

2. Go to your offshore book and click the side or total you came up with. Do not get suckered in to the other side because its +123 and the side you orginally capped and came up with is -116. If you felt your side was the better side before checking the vig, do not change your bet based on the vig. Thats what your book wants you to do. Do not fall for it.

3. Follow the steam. If the game you like opens at -4.5 and then when your about to click it it becomes -5.5 stick to your side or stay off. Do not go to the other side just because the line shifted against you. ie. NCAA last week. halftime line opened at +6. I was gonna jump on it. But 2 minutes later it was down to +4.5 It made me happy to know that the line was moving so quickly against my side. I took it at 4.5. Sharp Play!

DO NOT GET SUCKERED INTO ANY PLAY!


-MC

 

[Journeyman]

Good advice MC...I can`t tell you how many times I`ve checked a halftime and seen a line quickly move to (-3 -125) and feel intimidated into playing the other way....And usually those plays end up losing...

MC- How many days til opening day lol?

 

[Dante]

Do not chase after a loss and most of all PRAY

 

[truthteller]

Good topic Jman.

For me, I start off capping the game myself. Then I check the lines and the vig at various books but I mostly use Pinnacle and Cascade. If I capped say Rockets -3 for the game and I see them at a similiar number at a vig like -117 and the other side is like +101, then I bet.

For example, I capped the NE game last week at -6. I saw the line at -3 but with the vig at -117 at Pinnacle. That was my biggest play for the week so far.

That's been very successful for me so far.

 

[Alejocruz+]

In my case, what worked the best was when i stopped trying to make up for a loss that same night. Just wait til next day, don't try to see numbers where you didn't before.

 

[SSI]

playing a small percentage on each play out of a large bankroll.. i strive for 1% per play.. this is my number 1 rule that i try and stick to 90-95% of the time.. getting to the 20k bankroll was the hard part (for me)..

then comes not chasing, chasing losses ruins more than anything else, at least anything that ive seen...

and just think, i havent mentioned a thing about handicapping yet..

 

[oldmanTED]

Journeyman:

As I consider myself a fundamental handicapper, I consider success in sports wagering to be about match-ups. When analyzing a game, it is very important to have gone through a visual picture in one's mind as to how the personnel, style of play, coaching tendencies, and many other elements will play out. Too often, we get caught up in individual skilled positions or star players and let that cloud our judgment and miss the complete picture. An example: Peyton Mannings performances leading up to this past weekend's AFC Conference Championship. All games are about player on player and how they perform under the coaches direction and style of play. For instance, it is not an accident when we often say that "defense wins championships" or "good pitching controls good hitting". If one looks back at games after they are completed, one can usually find the reason for the winning team's success. That knowledge should then be filed away and used at a later date in another match-up.

After looking at the match-ups, one should come up with a fair number that should be attached to the game. If the number is significantly different, value exists and the play should be considered and weighted accordingly.

Money management is critical to the overall success in building the bankroll. Whether it be a flat wager or a varying wager, it should be a percentage of the varying bankroll. Without proper money management and good records, even the best handicappers do not succeed.

These are but a few of many elements to beating the bookmakers. It is a tough business, but one can succeed if they are disciplined and determined and look at the long view in years not days.

 

[MudSlideSlim]

dont end up in the hole after you have gone 2-1 on the day. think about it

 

[Railbird]

I try to get the best information available, your information should be very current, like less than a minute old if possible. If your source of information is not your own, you better get atleast a 2nd confirmation on that information. Diffrent sports information is diffrent. I try to find the stupidist bookmaker possible. When my edge is large I bet large. I trust nobody on television, people on television are told directly or indirectly what to say, if they are the least bit cynical there job is history. Most of there inforamtion is poor, and-or there opinions are garbage. I try to take every selection as a road game, like the Lou HOltz commercial, me against the world. People arent out to help you usuually either, even though they act like it. I dont trust these boards for opinions, because most peoples opinions suck or there information sucks. More to Follow

 

[MeyerLansky]

3 team $$$ line underdog parlays are the only way.

 

[MeyerLansky]

just kidding.

 

[SoCal]

don't bet just cause you need to feed the fever. if you don't like a game after breaking it down... stay off it. easy to read a few posts and get wired for that same game you don't like.

 

[dogdoug]

1) bet only games that fall under strict criterion as plays whatever criterion it is you have established (I'm mainly a systems player).
2) bet the same amount according to bankroll on each play; never assuming that certain plays are better than others.
3) trust your judgment and have faith in your research that put you on your plays to begin with. Might as well not even play if you can't trust your own conclusions.
4) always play only what you can afford to lose, not what you want to win. This is why sound money management keeps you in the game and lets you gradually make a comeback after the losing streaks we all endure.

 

[RxScorekeeper]

Good info guys...

 

[Java]

I find a baseball bat to be quite satisfying for this.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Java,I prefer brass knuckles.

 

[DarrylParsons]

I could tell you but then I would have to eat you

 

[Horseshoe]

Surround one's self with those smarter than thy self, grab their coat tails, and hang on for the ride..it really works.

In all seriousness, do what BM's would rather players not do(they want you playing the board, all seasons until rum-dumb without taking a break, tv tilts, props, parlays, etc..), instead look for spots of value, play heaviest in short bursts(personal winning streaks, playoffs of all kinds, Conf Tourneys/March Madness, Bowls), play primarily only on strong plays win-or-lose(stay away from coin-flip affairs), look to make at least 65+% of your plays the dog(be it points or moneylines..even if you lose for a while it will help develop your eye for winners in the long haul)..this will allow you to overcome the vig in the end...just a Simpleton starter, but it's a start.

And what they mentioned above, what is it Lem's 101?..no more than 2% of bankroll on any one play(that's a huge play).

Those "in the know" have the rolls, and the access to experts in many places to play all year, and most all days, but the average bettor needs to find a bread-and-butter starting point to evolve from, until then..he's just a ship without a rudder.

 

[5teamparlay]

Patience